Conservatives keep lead in poll

Last Updated: Thursday, October 29, 2009 | 7:55 AM ET

Support for the Conservative Party continued to hold last week, according to the latest poll results from EKOS.

Among decided respondents, the Conservatives drew 38.4 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 26.8 per cent and the New Democratic Party at 16.7 per cent.

The Green Party had the support of 9.9 per cent of decided respondents, while the Bloc Québécois had 8.2 per cent support, according to the EKOS poll, which was released exclusively to CBC.

Last week, the Conservatives stood at 38.3 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 27.1 per cent, the NDP at 14.5 per cent, the Green Party at 11 per cent, and the BQ at nine per cent.

Respondents in the automated telephone survey are asked: “If an election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?” The poll reached 3,220 respondents between Oct. 21 and Oct. 27. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

EKOS also asked Canadians their thoughts on the leadership of Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton, asking if any of the three should be removed immediately as leader of their respective party.

On Jack Layton, 51 per cent of respondents indicated they thought Layton should remain at the helm of the NDP, while 25 per cent said he should be replaced.

Layton had the high-water mark of support among the three leaders. On Harper, 45 per cent said he should stay, while 40 per cent said he should be replaced.

Michael Ignatieff’s support was the weakest: 31 per cent of respondents said he should stay, while 46 per cent said he should go.

Ignatieff made changes in his inner circle this week. Late Tuesday, Ignatieff announced that Peter Donolo was taking over as the Liberal leader’s chief of staff. Donolo left his post at the Strategic Counsel, a Toronto polling firm, to replace Ian Davey, a longtime Ignatieff supporter.

Donolo was a communications director for former Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien.

New poll gives Harper’s Tories a majority

Posted: October 08, 2009, 2:01 PM by Mary Vallis

A new Ekos poll released this morning suggests Stephen Harper and the Conservatives could win a majority government if Canadians voted in an election today.

The poll found 39.7% of respondents would vote for the Conservatives, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous week. Meanwhile, 25.7% of respondents said they would vote for the Liberals, down by four points from the polling firm’s data from the previous week (29.7%).

What’s more, the results peg Mr. Harper’s approval rating at 39%, while Mr. Ignatieff trails significantly at 19%. A majority of respondents — 51% — said they disapprove of the way Mr. Ignatieff is handling his job.

“The Liberals are now in danger of branding themselves as the party of political instability, or the party of election threats,” said Paul Adams, executive director of Strategic Communications for EKOS Research Associates. “Every time people wake up and pay attention to Michael Ignatieff, it’s because he’s threatening an election. It’s pretty clear from everybody’s polling, not just ours, that Canadians don’t want an election.”

“It’s allowed the Conservatives to brand themselves around being stewards of the economy and the government more generally,” Mr. Adams added.

Mr. Harper’s approval experienced a “little bit of a jump” after he took the stage a the National Arts Centre and played a Beatles tune on the piano over the weekend, Mr. Adams said.

The pollsters call the results a “dramatic setback” for the Liberal Party.  The results suggest the Liberal Party’s traditional lead among women, immigrants and university educated voters has been “erased,” they say.

The poll showed 12.5% of respondents would vote for the NDP (up from 13.9% the previous week). The Green Party and the Bloc each claimed the support of 9.7% of respondents.

Forty-one percent of Canadians named economic issues as the most important election issue, while 33% said it was social issues and another 17% named fiscal issues.

The poll was conducted between Sept. 6 an Oct. 6, 2009 and includes responses from 3,333 Canadians. the results are considered accurate within 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The full report can be found here.

—Mary Vallis, National Post