How many bad days can Michael Ignatieff have in a row?

The votes are in and the conclusion is that the four federal byelections held Monday are definitely …. over.

Phew. So much punditry devoted to so little. Other than polls taken when no election is in sight, byelections may be the most over-analyzed events in federal politics.

Reuters opens its coverage of the results with this:

Canada’s ruling Conservative strengthened their grip on power on Monday when they unexpectedly won two extra seats in Parliament in special elections, making it even less likely they will be brought down any time soon.

Hmm, what exactly does that mean, “strengthened their grip on power”? Before the byelections, the Tories had a minority government. Now … they have a minority government! They have two more seats than before, but can still be defeated by the combined forces of the opposition. So, how is that stronger?

It must be true, though, because Bloomberg takes a similar line:

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party moved closer to a majority in the country’s national legislature with two victories in local by- elections.

“Closer to a majority”. That’s like, when I wander down to the National Post cafeteria, I’m closer to Australia than I used to be. Before the byelections, the government was 12 seats short of a majority. Now, excitingly, they’re 10 seats short. Wow, that means… they’re still … short of a majority. And unless there’s another general election, it will stay that way. So nothing has changed. Wow!

The Globe and Mail, not surprisingly, doesn’t buy this thesis. Everything that happens in Ottawa is significant, if you’re the Globe and Mail. Daniel Leblanc writes that the government’s pick-up of a Quebec seat from the Bloc was a “shocker”.

While a by-election is just that, the upset suggests Quebec will be the scene of interesting races in the next general election, and that even the safest Bloc seat can be in play. For Gilles Duceppe, the result provides the biggest challenge since he briefly quit as Bloc Leader to run for the leadership of the Parti Québécois in 2007.

That’s a good theory, except that Tory fortunes in Quebec tend to bounce around like a kid on a pogo stick — up, down, up, down, and no one ever seems to know where they’ll head next. They were fine until the middle of the last election, when an ill-advised Harper remark on culture sent them plunging. Then the coalition came along and Harper’s attack on the Bloc was seen as self-immolation, ending any hope of a comeback. Yet now the government steals a seat from Gilles Duceppe, and suddenly nothing’s safe.

CBC’s Kady O’Malley as usual manages to be entertaining without having to decide who won, grading each race on a smugness scale:

The Conservatives are allowed to be entirely smug over Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup. As to the riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, they are granted a limited licence to gloat quietly, at least in public, since really, it would have been a very bad sign if they hadn’t managed to win that seat back. Port Coquitlam is, however, declared a smugness-free zone, since they got smoked by the NDP by any metric one cares to employ.

As with most commentators, she concludes that Michael Ignatieff clearly had the worst day, since “the Liberals have failed to meet the minimum qualifications for any smugness licence.”

Mr. Ignatieff seemed just as confused about the importance of the results as anyone. “The by-election results last night show that we have a lot of work ahead of us,” he eventually said in a statement. “Canadians want an alternative to the Harper Conservatives. Our job in the months ahead is to earn the confidence and support of Canadians.”

Canadians “want an alternative to the Harper Conservatives”? So they show it by electing more Conservatives? Odd people, these Canadians.

Kelly McParland
National Post

Read it here.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 7:43 AM

Altered landscape in Quebec

Daniel Leblanc

1. The surprise. Yesterday’s four by-elections gave us the Rivière-du-Loup shocker, while confirming the Liberal slumber.

By beating the Bloc Québécois in eastern Quebec, the Conservatives got the result they had hoped to achieve in the last general election. Had victory come a year ago in Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, Stephen Harper might have gotten an overall majority, as the riding was exactly the type of place where he was planning on making gains in Quebec. Instead, the Conservatives got bogged down in a debate on culture cuts and stagnated in the province, allowing the Bloc to hold on.

While a by-election is just that, the upset suggests Quebec will be the scene of interesting races in the next general election, and that even the safest Bloc seat can be in play. For Gilles Duceppe, the result provides the biggest challenge since he briefly quit as Bloc Leader to run for the leadership of the Parti Québécois in 2007.

Yesterday’s Conservative victory is made even more significant because the party was deemed to be toast in Quebec last winter, after Mr. Harper’s near-death experience in Parliament and the short-lived plans for a Liberal-NDP coalition supported by the Bloc. At the time, a number of long-time Tory supporters said that “something snapped” in Quebec and that the party was hopeless as long as Mr. Harper was at the helm. Things have changed.

The Conservatives benefited from running a former mayor in the riding, while the Bloc, which had held the riding for 16 years, once again relied on a former riding assistant. In times of crisis, the Conservative message on the economy obviously resonated, and the Bloc needs to rethink its strategy. Rivière-du-Loup brings back memories of the by-election in Roberval two years ago, when the Conservatives managed to takeover a Bloc stronghold by running former mayor Denis Lebel. He held on to the seat in the general election, and he is now a minister and regularly doles out cheques all over the province.

The three other by-elections all worked out according to plans, with the NDP winning in New Westminster—Coquitlam in British Columbian, the Conservatives taking Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia, and the Bloc holding on to Hochelaga.

Contrary to what the results suggest, the Liberals did run candidates in all four ridings. It’s just that they finished a distant third in all of them. While victories were not expected, it’s obviously not the type of defeat that a “government-in-waiting” and an Official Opposition can take lightly. At least the new chief of staff Peter Donolo knows exactly where things stand as he attempts to relaunch Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff’s political career.

2. The numbers. Overall, voters in the four ridings cast a total of 94,630 ballots, which went like this:

Bloc Québécois – 19,709

Conservative – 33,856

Green Party – 2,896

Liberal Party – 13,985

NDP – 23,180

Other – 1,004

The value of the mathematical exercise is debatable, but with 14.7-per cent of the vote, the Liberals collected almost 10,000 fewer votes than the NDP (24.5-per cent), and more than 20,000 fewer votes than the Conservative Party (35.8-per cent). It’s not all bad news for the Liberals: The Green Party also ran candidates in all four ridings, and got only 3 per cent of the votes.

3. The spin. I don’t know why, but the NDP and Conservative spinners were the first to respond to my request for their take on the by-elections. Maybe it has something to do with meeting or exceeding expectations. So here are their takes, with the Bloc and Liberal spins to come:

Brad Lavigne, NDP national director: “Jack Layton has increased his support in every region tonight. In B.C., the NDP has increased its hold over the Conservatives with its greatest level of support ever in the lower mainland. New Democrats are now the alternative to the Bloc in Montreal and to the Tories in rural Nova Scotia. The initial seeds of an electoral breakthrough for the NDP have been planted tonight. “

Fred DeLorey, Conservative spokesman: “Governments rarely win by-elections, so we are pleased we were able to win seats in Nova Scotia and Quebec. Placing this strong in the other ridings bodes well for our future. The Harper government has provided a steady hand on the economy, we are continuing to implement our Economic Action Plan and it’s clear that Canadians approve of the job we’re doing.

“I understand the Liberals are trying to spin their poor results – but the truth is these are by-elections during a global economic downturn, this is when the Official Opposition is supposed to do well. What kind of Official Opposition party hoping to win government does not do well in by-elections in the midst of a global economic downturn? The answer: one that’s in trouble.

“I think it’s very significant that they finished out of contention in all of these four by-elections after Michael Ignatieff personally visited and campaigned in all of them.

“Everyone was saying the Nova Scotia seat was a three-way race, the Liberals won this seat before, and they finished third tonight. Same story in British Columbia, they’ve won parts of this riding not long ago, out of contention tonight. In the Montreal riding of Hochelaga they were always coming in second with a decent percentage of the vote – yet tonight they finish behind the NDP at third.”

Friday, November 6, 2009 7:09 PM

Follow the leader? Not these Liberals

Jane Taber

Michael Ignatieff needs to get a grip – on his caucus, on his party and on his staff. Too many of his Liberals are going rogue.

Eight of his MPs voted with the Tories this week to kill the long-gun registry. The Chrétien Liberals created the registry, spilling political blood to frame it into law. Privately, in the closed-door caucus meeting on Wednesday, Mr. Ignatieff urged his MPs to stand together and vote against the government. His pleas fell on deaf ears. However, Mr. Ignatieff reminded reporters that he was allowing his MPs to vote freely, and that it was a private member’s bill, not government legislation.

This week, too, Liberal president Alf Apps sent a note to colleagues and party supporters comparing the H1N1 vaccine crisis to the Bush government’s handling of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. More than a few Liberals were upset with the Apps hyperbole.

Then, Mr. Ignatieff’s hand-picked national party director, Rocco Rossi, was on Twitter, joking about swine flu and party patronage, saying “pork before swine.” A veteran Tory strategist called the Rossi joke “offensive.” Mr. Ignatieff didn’t offer any comment on the Apps/Rossi controversies.

It doesn’t end there: Ignatieff senior staffer Mark Sakamoto appeared on national television as an “ordinary citizen” complaining about the supply of the H1N1 vaccine. His cover was blown; the incident was embarrassing.

Mr. Sakamoto denied he was a plant. As parents of a newborn, he and his wife are on the priority list for the vaccine, and were waiting in line at a clinic when the interviewer approached. However, some believe the Ignatieff adviser should have known better.

Clearly, this behaviour is unnerving the Grits, with one Liberal describing the unwinding of the Ignatieff Liberals as being of “biblical proportions.”

Perhaps a slight exaggeration. But it is still instructive as it is happening when no one is in charge.

Mr. Ignatieff’s new chief of staff is Peter Donolo. His ETA on the Hill is Nov. 17. Mr. Donolo’s predecessor, Ian Davey, a close friend and adviser to Mr. Ignatieff, is on a beach in Florida with his girlfriend, Jill Fairbrother, the very capable director of communications to Mr. Ignatieff.

The two are mulling over their future. It is not clear whether they will return, and if they do, in what capacity.

Amid all this uncertainty is an undercurrent of restiveness in the caucus about Mr. Davey’s treatment. His imminent departure was leaked to the media before he even had a chance to speak to Mr. Ignatieff, and while Ms. Fairbrother was still denying it. Some MPs wonder where is the loyalty of the leader, who has been silent about the situation.

This rogue behaviour, meanwhile, is providing great fodder for the government, which is accusing the Ignatieff Liberals of being so base as to exploit the flu pandemic.

“It is very sad and unfortunate that the Ignatieff Liberals are desperately attempting to politicize the H1N1 preparedness efforts of the federal and provincial governments,” the PMO said in its “Alert” response to the Sakamoto television appearance. And in Question Period this week, Tory cabinet ministers repeated that same “politicization” refrain.

Have the Liberals lost their way?

EKOS national pollster Frank Graves says not yet. But they need to walk a fine line. Handled properly, the flu issue gives the Liberals an opportunity to show their stuff by keeping the government’s feet to the fire. He cautions them not to “wheel out the heavy artillery” until they are sure the government has grossly mishandled the situation. So far that does not appear to be the case.

“To do that at this stage you may end up looking basically disingenuous,” he said.

Mr. Graves has some sympathy for the Grits. “They are having a bad time in the polls, and they see a lob ball coming in and they just take a wild swing at it. … You kind of feel a little sorry for them.”

He believes that with Mr. Donolo’s experience, Mr. Ignatieff can rein in the Liberal outliers:

“Certainly a guy like Peter will be able to sort through what’s a real opportunity and a real exposed flank versus what’s just a story of the day.”

We’ll see in a couple of weeks.

This is a shameful new low. Thanks Michael Ignatieff.

Conservatives keep lead in poll

Last Updated: Thursday, October 29, 2009 | 7:55 AM ET

Support for the Conservative Party continued to hold last week, according to the latest poll results from EKOS.

Among decided respondents, the Conservatives drew 38.4 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 26.8 per cent and the New Democratic Party at 16.7 per cent.

The Green Party had the support of 9.9 per cent of decided respondents, while the Bloc Québécois had 8.2 per cent support, according to the EKOS poll, which was released exclusively to CBC.

Last week, the Conservatives stood at 38.3 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 27.1 per cent, the NDP at 14.5 per cent, the Green Party at 11 per cent, and the BQ at nine per cent.

Respondents in the automated telephone survey are asked: “If an election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?” The poll reached 3,220 respondents between Oct. 21 and Oct. 27. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

EKOS also asked Canadians their thoughts on the leadership of Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton, asking if any of the three should be removed immediately as leader of their respective party.

On Jack Layton, 51 per cent of respondents indicated they thought Layton should remain at the helm of the NDP, while 25 per cent said he should be replaced.

Layton had the high-water mark of support among the three leaders. On Harper, 45 per cent said he should stay, while 40 per cent said he should be replaced.

Michael Ignatieff’s support was the weakest: 31 per cent of respondents said he should stay, while 46 per cent said he should go.

Ignatieff made changes in his inner circle this week. Late Tuesday, Ignatieff announced that Peter Donolo was taking over as the Liberal leader’s chief of staff. Donolo left his post at the Strategic Counsel, a Toronto polling firm, to replace Ian Davey, a longtime Ignatieff supporter.

Donolo was a communications director for former Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien.

Let’s play pretend.

You are the leader of the opposition, and you dearly want to become prime minister.

The country is facing a budget deficit somewhere north of $50 billion. You have promised to eliminate it. You have also promised no new taxes (sort of) and no cuts to any important program. (No instance of unimportant program has ever been identified by a governing party in Ottawa.)

Someone asks you a hypothetical question. If you were prime minister, which would you commit to first:

1. $175 million for a new hockey arena in Quebec, so it can try to attract an NHL hockey team

2. $20 billion, roughly, for a high-speed train from Quebec City to Windsor.

The correct answer is: “As prime minister my first priority would be to eliminate the deficit and return the country to a sound financial footing, and big new spending projects would have to wait.”

Michael Ignatieff’s answer: The choo-choo. “But I’d really like there to be a hockey team in Quebec City, that’s for sure.”

National Post

Read it here.

Beleaguered Ignatieff shakes up inner circle

Tue Oct 27, 10:50 PM

By Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press

OTTAWA – Michael Ignatieff’s office was in turmoil late Tuesday as the Liberal leader shook up his oft-criticized, relatively inexperienced inner circle.

After repeated denials from his official spokesperson, Ignatieff finally issued a news release Tuesday night confirming that he’s bringing in Peter Donolo – a proven political communications whiz – as his new chief of staff.

Donolo, communications director to former prime minister Jean Chretien, replaces Ian Davey, one of Ignatieff’s earliest and most loyal supporters.

Davey will apparently not have an ongoing role in the Opposition leader’s office.

“Ian Davey has my gratitude for his enormous service in building this OLO team and I am grateful for his continuing counsel,” Ignatieff said in the statement.

“I know that we are a stronger Liberal party because of his contribution and leadership.”

Ignatieff’s statement came about an hour after Jill Fairbrother – his communications director and Davey’s partner – denied any changes were in the works.

“Just trying to get a note out to staff. There is no news. No resignation(s). No new chief of staff,” she wrote in an email to The Canadian Press.

It was not clear if Fairbrother would continue in her role. Earlier Tuesday she flatly denied reports that she and Davey had resigned.

The chaotic manner in which Donolo’s appointment was announced led to speculation among insiders that Davey had been resisting the move and fighting to change Ignatieff’s mind.

Insiders suggested other changes could be in the works, including Ignatieff’s principal secretary, Dan Brock.

Earlier Tuesday, the rumour mill had been in hyperdrive, with some Liberals asserting that Ignatieff was going to “clean house.”

The chaos underscored for some Liberals how desperately Ignatieff needs some experienced, politically savvy members in his inner circle.

Fairly or unfairly, Ignatieff’s staff has been widely blamed for the Liberals’ plummeting poll numbers and the leader’s lack of coherent messaging as he stumbles from misstep to misstep.

In the past month, Ignatieff has been forced to backtrack on his threat to force an election at the earliest opportunity. And he’s had to shake up his Quebec team after his provincial lieutenant, Denis Coderre, quit in a huff.

Coderre bitterly blamed Ignatieff’s Toronto-centred inner circle for interfering in his job of recruiting candidates for the next election.

The addition of Donolo to the team won’t help Ignatieff shake the perception that he’s too Toronto-centric.

He hails originally from Montreal but has been living in Toronto for a number of years, as a pollster for The Strategic Counsel. Before joining Chretien’s team in 1992, he was an adviser to then Toronto mayor Art Eggelton.

But Donolo was widely considered one of the most effective communicators on Parliament Hill during his time with Chretien.

He is credited with helping to turn around Chretien’s shaky performance during his stint as opposition leader and with helping him shed the label of “yesterday’s man.”

Among other things, Donolo helped persuade Chretien, then 59, to pose in a blue denim shirt for the 1993 Liberal campaign poster, which Chretien won in a landslide.

Donolo’s humour and forthright, affable manner made him popular among reporters.

In a statement late Tuesday, Donolo said he’s very pleased to be joining the Liberal team.

“The Liberal party is an important and vital institution in our country with an unequalled history and an exciting future. Its leader, Michael Ignatieff, is an outstanding Canadian who I believe would make an excellent prime minister.”

In turfing Davey, Ignatieff has signalled his willingness to break with some of his most loyal supporters.

Davey was one of a handful of Liberals who persuaded Ignatieff, an internationally renowned academic at Harvard, to return to Canada in 2005 to run for political office. He ran Ignatieff’s leadership campaign in 2006.

CBC has the story.

Time for Ignatieff to take a chance:

It is true in politics, no less than in physics, that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Michael Ignatieff, as is well known, has seen his popularity nosedive in recent weeks, when it seemed he could not put a foot right. Very well: if he is smart, he can turn that to his advantage, using the very speed of his decline to propel his rebound. Reculer pour mieux sauter and all that. There is a script for this. If listening to his advisers, playing it safe, taking no stands, guarding every word has brought him to this humiliating low, then the way is open for one of those Hollywood moments, where the candidate rips up the speech that has been prepared for him and speaks from the heart—when he sheds the ingratiating poses of “politics as usual” in favour of his authentic self. Of course, it helps if that is, in fact, what the candidate is up to.

It is tempting to believe that the public does not want this—that we would sooner our politicians lie to us, dope us with half truths, preferring the comforting haze of denial to the harsh light of reality. But in fact the voters show every sign of craving the opposite, if only it were offered to them. Whenever and wherever they catch the slightest whiff of authenticity in a candidate, they practically rush the barriers, at least until the inevitable disappointment, either because the candidate proves not so authentic as it appeared, or because authenticity, all too often, comes bundled with incompetence.

So, assuming the Liberal leader has any interest in this strategy, he will have both to break the mould of politics-as-usual in fact, and to persuade the public of this reality. He will have to stake out a bold position on an issue of importance other politicians would prefer to avoid, in a way that inspires confidence that he will stick to it under fire.

There is an issue that presents itself, as others have noted, as an opportunity for Ignatieff to show some backbone, and that is the deficit. Certainly it’s an important issue: the greatest proximate threat to our standard of living, particularly in light of the approaching “geezer boom,” with the explosion of social costs, notably for health care, it will bring. And it is one on which current political discourse remains frozen in denial. We are sliding back into the habits of mind that produced the long string of deficits of the 1980s and 1990s, where budgets always balance in the future but never today, and any unpleasant gaps are made to disappear with endless, endless growth.

Read the rest here.