Ignatieff author of his own defeat

For a long time now I’ve thought that the only person who really liked Michael Ignatieff was the man himself. And maybe a few advisors. Now I’m starting to wonder if Michael Ignatieff even likes Michael Ignatieff. Every step made since his infamous “If you mess with me I’ll mess with you until I’m done” statement has been a step down into the cellar. As though he was suffering from the same afflication that affects many academics, a certain kind of self-loathing not only for themselves, but for the societies in which they live. The very societies that have allowed people like them to exist.

Ignatieff author of own misfortune

STEPHEN MAHER LETTER FROM OTTAWA
Sat. Oct 10 – 4:46 AM

BACK IN MAY, when the Conservatives rolled out their attack ads against Michael Ignatieff, he stood in front of a crowd of Liberals in Gander and issued a warning to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

“If you mess with me, I will mess with you until I’m done,” he said.

At the time, according to polling firm EKOS, Mr. Ignatieff’s Liberals were ahead of Mr. Harper’s Conservatives.

Mr. Ignatieff lost the lead in the spring but managed to stay tied with Mr. Harper over the summer, although the prime minister spent July and August cutting ribbons in front of construction sites and Mr. Ignatieff spent most of it, as he put it, “thinking thoughts” in Stornaway.

Those thoughts — presumably aimed at figuring out how to finish messing with Mr. Harper — led Mr. Ignatieff to lead his party to vote against the Tories this fall, which could have set off an election in which — most delightful thought of all! — Mr. Ignatieff would become prime minister.

So on Aug. 31, at the beginning of the Liberals’ back-to-school caucus meeting, Mr. Ignatieff again stood in front of a crowd of Liberals and addressed Mr. Harper directly: “After four years of drift, four years of denial, four years of division and four years of discord, Mr. Harper, your time is up.”

Or, actually, not. The NDP came to the rescue of the Tories — making Parliament work! — and we were spared an election that few Canadians desired.

Mr. Ignatieff failed to make a convincing argument about the need for an election, and Canadians judged that he was in it for himself, reinforcing the message of the Conservative attack ads, and the Tories opened up a lead in the polls.

Then Mr. Ignatieff had trouble in Quebec. Denis Coderre, his bombastic Quebec lieutenant, was using too much muscle, trying to bully MPs into giving up their ridings and declining to make space for former justice minister Martin Cauchon, who wanted to run for his old seat in Outrement, now held by the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair.

Mr. Ignatieff first backed Mr. Coderre, then reversed himself, so Mr. Coderre quit as Quebec lieutenant, denouncing the Toronto cabal around Mr. Ignatieff — a message that put smiles on the faces of the sovereigntists and made the Liberals look like amateurs.

While Stephane Dion was leader, Mr. Coderre and other Ignatieff supporters in Quebec repeatedly signalled their lack of loyalty, weakening Mr. Dion while Ignatieff supporters rolled their eyes and snickered. But when Mr. Ignatieff had to deal with Mr. Coderre — likely a more prickly character than is found in Harvard faculty lounges — he did no better than Mr. Dion.

L’affaire Coderre set off the usual media speculation and analysis, wherein pundits and anonymous off-the-record Liberals all blathered on about Mr. Ignatieff’s many failings, and the slide in the polls continued.

Then Mr. Harper appeared at the National Arts Centre with Yo-Yo Ma and sang a Beatles song, thawing his icy image, and Mr. Ignatieff responded gracelessly by attacking him for culture funding cuts.

So the Liberal leader, rather than the government, has been the object of critical reporting during the fall, taking the heat off the government in two areas where it looks vulnerable: the management of the stimulus funding and our national preparations for the H1N1 pandemic.

The Conservatives let the Liberals fight amongst themselves and delivered their message — something about managing the economy while their opponents play games — and the gap between the two parties grew.

This week, EKOS showed the Tories ahead 40-26, with the Liberals trailing even among their traditional voters — women, recent immigrants, Torontonians and Atlantic Canadians.

Things can change quickly in politics, and it is not possible to write off Mr. Ignatieff until a campaign, but it would be difficult to exaggerate how bad this polling news is for the Liberals and how good for the Tories.

For the first time since Mr. Harper became leader of the Canadian Alliance in 2002, it is easy to imagine him winning a majority government.

His government is performing better than ever, adroitly managing news cycles and parliamentary events. It has been some time since we have seen Harper’s nasty side, and if you look at European politics — where parties of the centre right are on the rise — there is reason to believe that voters want middle-of-the-road conservatives to lead them through this recession.

Mr. Ignatieff is not reading the public mood well, which is not surprising given that he has only been in politics for three years. It looks like he and his team were so dazzled by his charm that they thought everyone would love him as much as they do and so failed to pursue politics with the necessary discipline.

As a result, Mr. Ignatieff now finds himself in the awkward position of having sworn to try to bring down the government, which, if he were to succeed, would result in an electoral disaster for him. He may have to decide that he is done messing with Mr. Harper sometime sooner than he had hoped.